Recent events have served as a stark reminder of Russia’s capacity to deliver targeted strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While during much of the winter, Russia alternated between attacking Ukrainian military-industrial complexes, military positions, terrorizing civilian populations, and targeting the energy sector, the focus has now shifted to the latter two—attacking civilians and the energy sector.
In their warped logic, this strategy appears rational—to intimidate and demoralize, with the hope that Ukrainian society will collapse. Yet, I am confident that this strategy will fail, much like their initial plan to capture Kyiv “in three days.” Nonetheless, they still possess the capability to create problems for us.
This recent wave of energy attacks showcases a change in tactics by the Russians: they now target the same objects repeatedly, aiming not just to “finish off” transformers, distribution stations, or power units, but to harm the specialists conducting emergency or repair work. This tactic poses significant risks, particularly in regions like the Kharkiv region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Odesa, and Mykolaiv, where the Russians have concentrated their main attacks. Additionally, they aim to disrupt the network that imports electricity from the European Union, crucial for stabilizing the energy grid during generation deficits.
The attacks in March led Ukrainian energy workers to implement emergency and stabilization shutdowns on a scale not seen since the summer of 2023. Once again, Ukrainians must demonstrate civic responsibility and conserve electricity. If the attacks persist and Western assistance, especially from the US, continues to be delayed, these shutdowns may affect the entire country temporarily. However, the collapse of the Ukrainian energy sector is not imminent.
We won’t dwell on the motives of the Russians, as attempting to find logic or rational motives in the actions of terrorists is futile—their primary objective will always be to inflict pain and demoralize. How they justify their actions is irrelevant. Instead, we should focus on what we and our allies must do.
First and foremost, it is imperative to bolster the Air Defense Forces. While Ukraine possesses a significant amount of foreign weaponry alongside Soviet-era models, acquiring more depends critically on American congressmen. Strengthening mobile Air Defense groups is also underway to counter Russian drones and missiles. Therefore, we await positive developments from Washington.
Secondly, intensifying strikes on Russian territory. While some attribute the intensified attacks on energy to Ukraine’s systematic targeting of the Russian oil refining industry, rationalizing the actions of terrorists is pointless—they act out of capability, not reason. If strikes on refineries hurt them, Ukraine should persist. The greater the losses for Russia, particularly for Putin’s entourage, which profits from oil and gas, the sooner the war may end.
Thirdly, Ukraine must continue its policy of decentralizing energy supply and further integrating into the European energy network. In November 2023, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) augmented Ukraine’s supply capabilities by 500 MW to 1,700 MW. These capacities enabled increased energy exports during stable periods and currently facilitate stabilization through imports.
Fourthly, local authorities should prioritize investments or attract financing for the decentralization of heat production and enhancement of energy efficiency this year. Decentralization will fortify large cities against the risks of centralized energy supply and enable compensation for losses from individual generation centers through mutual insurance. Drawing inspiration from the Scandinavian model, particularly Sweden, where most buildings and social infrastructure are heated and cooled using heat pump stations, provides a promising approach. These stations utilize the potential of water, atmosphere, and land as raw materials. For instance, in Stockholm, a station serves 400 thousand city residents. The adoption of heat pumps is growing due to their efficiency and reduced environmental impact, with over 700,000 heat pumps in Sweden. To incentivize cities and enterprises to invest more in modern energy, grants and loans from institutions like the World Bank and European energy funds can be attracted.
Fifthly, systematic government action is imperative for Ukraine to develop a 10-20-year energy conservation strategy. While some may argue that such long-term planning is premature, initiating the program’s implementation now, leveraging external resources within the framework of the European “Green Deal,” will enable immediate reductions in heat and electricity consumption, providing short-term benefits. The energy conservation program should encompass incentives and accessible insulation programs, initiatives to reduce emissions, transitioning public transport to electricity and biofuels, subsidies for cultivating energy forests, and waste recycling and environmentally friendly incineration.
Lastly, substantial investments in domestic extraction and green energy can significantly bolster our energy security. To achieve increased gas production and construct wind and solar power plants, funds from Western and Eastern investors are essential. Ensuring business security, including energy security, remains paramount. Strategic thinking, even during short-term challenges, is crucial. By addressing immediate concerns while implementing a strategy based on decentralization and energy conservation best practices, we can mitigate the impact of Russian terrorist attacks on our daily lives and significantly expand the long-term prospects of Ukrainian energy and ecology.
Aleksandr Katsuba is a Ukrainian entrepreneur, an expert in the energy sector, and the owner of ALPHA GAZ company.
