A MAP shows the areas of Edinburgh which may be below flood level by 2050, with much of the Port of Leith and The Shore projected to be at risk.
The coastal risk screening tool from Climate Central explores sea level rise and coastal flood threats, and claims that many areas on Edinburgh’s coastline are expected to be below flood level by 2050.
This means that these areas are at risk of being underwater in the next 25 years, due to sea level rise caused by climate change.
Another map by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) shows that Granton and Cramond Island show a high likelihood of flooding, with a 10% chance every year.
Climate Central states their maps are based on “global-scale datasets for elevation and tides in addition to sea level rise predictions”.
They “do not take into account factors such as erosion, future changes in the frequency or intensity of storms, inland flooding, or contributions from rainfall or rivers”.
According to Action Aid UK, for every one degree celsius rise in temperature, the air can hold 7% more water vapour, which causes heavy rainfall and therefore flash floods.
Increasing temperatures also lead to the melting of the polar ice caps, which in turn causes sea levels to rise, posing a threat to coastal areas such as Newhaven.
The Climate Central map shows that The Shore, which surrounds the Water of Leith, could be at risk of sinking as far as Constitution Street.
The Forth Ports may be completely underwater by 2050, and the Port of Leith, where the Royal Yacht Britannia is docked, looks to be in significant danger too.
Further to this, not only is Portobello Beach forecasted to disappear, but Musselburgh is at considerable risk as well due to its proximity to the River Esk and the Forth Estuary.
Musselburgh Flood Protection states that: “Climate change would have the effect of increasing the flood risk to Musselburgh.
“There are many different scientific predictions of how much the global atmospheric temperature will increase by over the next century, all of which are based on an assumed amount of carbon emitted globally each year.”
They have certain protections in place to reduce flood risk today and in the future, but predict that around 3,000 properties will be in peril by 2100 if a credible worst-case scenario for climate change occurs.
The Met Office predicts that by 2070, winters in the UK will be up to 30% wetter and between 1 and 4.5 degrees celsius warmer.
Though the 2015 Paris Agreement saw nearly 200 countries agree to try and prevent global temperatures rising by more than 1.5 celsius above pre-industrial levels, 2024 was the first year that saw temperatures go above this threshold.
