AN EARLY Easter this year has been blamed for a slump in Scots retail sales in April, but a strong Scotland Euros performance could lead to a resurgence.
According to data by KPMG and the Scottish Retail Consortium, total sales in Scotland dropped 4.0% from the previous April when sales had grown 9.1%.
Adjusted for inflation, the year-on-year decline was 4.8% – which was felt across the board with fashion, food and domestic sectors all suffering with sales decreased by 3.6% on like-for-like compared with April 2023, when they had increased by 6.2%.
But with warmer weather to come and the Olympics and the Euros set to kick off this June and July, it is hoped that this could grow sales during the summer months.
David Lonsdale, director of the Scottish Retail Consortium, said: “Scottish retail sales tumbled in April compared to the same trading period the year before.
“Much of this can be attributed to Easter falling unusually early this year, which brought forward shopper purchases and meant shopper footfall and spending in April was constrained.
“The decline was felt across the board with food retailing, DIY, gardening, furniture, and household appliances all suffering.
“Fashion fared poorly too despite the availability of new seasonal ranges and widespread discounting.
“The only bright spot was computing, which did well after a couple of torrid years.
“Notwithstanding the Easter distortion, the figures do underline the sense that any recovery in consumer demand and retail sales is at best fitful and fragile.
“That said, there are some grounds for cautious optimism.
“Recent reductions in national insurance contributions and the freeze in council tax should hopefully support demand over the months ahead, especially with shop price inflation at its lowest level for two and a half years.
“This summer’s major sporting events including the European football championships and Olympics will also provide a welcome fillip to retail, more so if the Scottish football team and Team GB have something to celebrate.”
Total Food sales in Scotland decreased by 3.0% versus April 2023, when they had increased by 15.4%, with the sector missing out on Easter spending.
Other sectors also suffered from the poor weather this April with the total non-food sales decreased by 4.9% in April compared with April 2023, when they had increased by 3.9%.
Adjusted for the estimated effect of online sales, total non-food sales decreased by 7.1% in versus April 2023, when they had increased by 2.5%.
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer retail and leisure at KPMG, said: “The positive sales growth seen in March was short lived [due to] the impact of an early Easter.
“Continued wet and chilly weather [also] saw April retail sales fall by 4.0% year-on-year in Scotland, with both food and non-food sales recording a drop when compared to the previous year.
“On paper consumers should arguably be feeling more able to go out spending again as economic conditions improve.
“But on the back of two years of budgeting and cost cutting, cautious consumers are releasing the purse-strings much more slowly than they tightened them.
“The positive sales figures seen in March due to an early Easter demonstrate the importance that triggers such as warmer weather, events and occasions can have in helping to deliver the necessary impact.
“Retailers will be hoping that there might still be an early summer interest rate cut, a strong performance from Scotland in the Euros, and an uptick in temperatures.
“Together this might be the trigger to boost consumers’ willingness to spend in the weeks ahead.”
Data discussed covered the four weeks 31 March – 27 April 2024.
