Almost two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, specialists are making different assessments of the outcomes of the conflict. While ex-NATO members envision the end of the war in similar terms to what happened in Korea, would-be challenger to Putin Boris Nadezhdin thinks the current president of Russia is soon leaving the Kremlin.
For Oleg Bakhmatyuk, founder and CEO of Urklandfarming, a group of major agricultural companies in Ukraine and globally, and an expert on Ukrainian politics, this year is probably not the last of the conflict, but it will be decisive. “2024 will be a year when Ukrainians will significantly strengthen their defense capabilities”, he argues by pointing out that recent technological innovations may give Ukraine an advantage on the battlefield.
That, however, will come with a great cost to an already unprecedented defense spending in the history of the Ukrainian government. Still, the entrepreneur believes this shouldn’t be holding the country back: “Even though a large portion of production facilities have been destroyed by the enemy and the coronavirus epidemic has impacted the economy, Ukraine has not only survived but also seen economic growth that exceeds even optimistic forecasts.”
This happened in part because the country has restored its grain export capabilities by creating a “grain corridor” in the Black Sea, despite Russia’s interventions. “This has greatly strengthened us and it is primarily due to the Ukrainian defense forces and the Ukrainian agricultural sector, which is not the first time becoming the basis for the stability of the Ukrainian economy”, explains the CEO of Urklandfarming.
But when it comes to the fact that 2024 is an election year in Ukraine, Bakhmatyuk says holding it is “inappropriate” as there are security issues and several territories that are still under Russian control. “There is also the issue of domestic political stability, after all, every presidential election in Ukraine has been held in an atmosphere of fierce competition and high emotional intensity”, he says. “So, the choice is simple: either we continue fighting to bring victory closer, or we focus on elections. I believe that, in such circumstances, elections can wait.”
That is not the case for the United States, where presidential elections are also being held this year. With Donald Trump coming back to the competition, the possibility of his reelection has prompted mixed feelings around the world. For Oleg Bakhmatyuk, if this happens, “foreign policy will change significantly”. “But again, the president’s primary role is to execute the will of the voters and American voters are clearly on the side of global stability and security, which means they are on the side of Ukraine”, he claims.
The CEO of Urklandfarming believes that, in case Trump is elected, Ukraine will have to establish communication with the president from scratch, but this shouldn’t be a concern as Ukrainian diplomacy has shown effectiveness and productivity during this time of war. If Biden stays in power, Bakhmatyuk claims the scenario would be the same as there is a consensus among Americans in supporting Ukrainian, and no president can ignore that.
In the meantime, the United Kingdom has shown support to the Ukrainian government with €3 billion in 2024 alone. For Bakhmatyuk, this addition is not only extremely important but critical for Ukraine as the country remains a consistent ally. “We are talking about a certain framework of security guarantees, a certain formalization of such intentions to support Ukraine”, he explains. “This is extremely important in itself, and it is a serious signal to other allies and partners.”
As for Urklandfarming, the group has suffered significant losses as a result of the Russian invasion, so the key mission in 2024 is to survive, preserve and, if possible, recover lost farmland that amounts to up to 35%. But for the founder and CEO, this is about the present; the future holds also the prospect of maintaining and strengthening the company’s position as a grain supplier to the global market.
As a final remark, Bakhmatyuk argues that the easiest thing for big businesses to do in a situation like this is “to wrap up everything and leave Ukraine”. But for those who think not only about immediate profits but also about what will happen to the country in the coming decades, there is only one option: “to withstand this blow together with the whole country, to survive, recover, and develop further in the future.” And this is what Urklandfarming has been doing by using their experience, knowledge, technology, and capabilities to participate in this process.
