In just under two months, Americans will be casting their presidential votes, and it’s seemingly neck-and-neck between current Head of State Donald Trump, and former Vice-President Joe Biden. It has, without a doubt, been a topsy-turvy year, and the ever-changing US Election odds reflect this. At the time of writing, Biden can be backed at 5/6 to dethrone Trump, whilst the money mogul is evens for a further four years in office – it really couldn’t be any closer!
As we have witnessed across the last few elections, the ballot could be won or lost in the battleground states, and as things stand, Biden looks to be in a better position than his counterpart.
The latest polls indicate that Barrack Obama’s former right-hand man is leading the way in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which is good news for the Democratic Party, as Trump nabbed the three industrial states from 2016 rival Hilary Clinton by less than 1%.
Biden’s lead in Michigan, which Trump won by just 0.2% in 2016, currently stands at 2.6%, whilst his margin in Pennsylvania (Trump by 0.7% in 2016) and Wisconsin (Trump by 0.8% in 2016) are much bigger at 4.2% and 4%, respectively.
Even outside of those three swing states, things still aren’t looking good for the current president. Arizona has been Republican territory since 1996 – so much so, in fact, that between 2008 and 2018, not a single Democrat was elected at any level. However, despite Trump winning the state by 3.6% four years ago, Biden currently holds a comfortable lead of 5%.
Over in Ohio, a state which Trump eased to victory in 2016, beating Clinton by a whopping 8.2% – his third biggest victory in the battleground states – Biden is currently in the lead (2.6%). However, unlike Arizona, Ohio tends to swing both ways year-after-year.
Biden also holds a very slight lead in Florida (1.8%), which has predominately been Republican ground since the 1950’s. After swaying towards Obama in 2008 and 2012, Trump beat Clinton by just 1.2% to win back the state.
Biden also leads in Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia – all of which Clinton won the vote for in 2016. However, Biden’s lead in the most recent polls are much bigger than Hilary’s. For example, four years ago, Clinton won New Hampshire by just 0.4%, whilst Biden currently leads 9.7%. Even in Virginia, which was Clinton’s biggest win in the battleground states (5.4%), Biden boasts a much bigger margin of 12.5%!
Trump leads in just Georgia, Iowa, and Texas, three states you would expect to swing in his favour. However, whilst they were states which he won comfortably in 2016 – Iowa and Texas by over 9% and Georgia by 5.2% – his leads are much slender in the most recent polls.
The 74-year-old’s holds relatively small leads of just 1.3 and 1.7% percent in Georgia and Iowa, whilst his margin in Texas is slightly bigger at 3.5%, but still someway off his margin of victory in 2016.
Of course, whilst things look to be in Biden’s favour, as we have seen before, when Trump is involved, anything is possible!
